Report Summary

Period covered: 03 August - 30 August 2025

3 minute read

Note: This report summary is one or two months behind the current month as standard reporting practice. The content is indicative only and incomplete with certain data undisclosed. Become a member to access this data or take out a free 30 day membership trial now.

Food & Grocery Sales

Food and grocery sales rose by xx% year-on-year in September, marking a notable turnaround from the xx% decline seen in the same period last year.

While the headline number indicates healthy growth, it continues to be inflated by grocery price inflation, with real volume gains still constrained by consumer caution and promotional dependency.

Key drivers and category performance

Spending patterns in September reflected a return to more disciplined routines. Shoppers focused on home cooking, health-conscious eating, and tactical deal-hunting. Value remains the dominant theme, but wellness cues are gaining ground, influencing basket composition in subtle but consistent ways.

Meat, fish and poultry categories performed well, up xx% in value and xx% in volume according to NIQ, as scratch cooking regained popularity. Health-led moderation trends continued to influence drinks purchases, with no/low alcohol beers now making up nearly xx% of sales and posting double-digit value growth. In contrast, traditional beer, wine and spirits saw volumes fall by xx%.

Promotions had a clear impact on trade. Nearly xx% of take-home grocery spend went through discounts, the highest level since April. Loyalty-linked pricing remained prominent, with Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Morrisons intensifying activity.

The HFSS regulation curbed promotional activity in high-fat, salt and sugar categories with multi-buy offers on crisps and cereals dropping sharply, changing the mix of deals and encouraging shoppers to seek alternatives.

The return to routine supported chilled foods, cooking ingredients, and mid-week convenience. NIQ highlighted a rise in “dinner for tonight” trips, with fresh produce, chilled proteins and meal kits all seeing steady demand. However, basket sizes fell, and many households continued to limit large shops in anticipation of more aggressive pre-Christmas promotions.

Shopper behaviour

Deal-seeking remains front and centre. Average unit sales declined xx% in September, confirming that inflation is driving value growth rather than increased purchasing. Shoppers are making smaller, more frequent trips, relying on apps and loyalty tools to track offers and stretch budgets.

Healthier lifestyles are beginning to take hold in more mainstream behaviours. Over half of households now say they avoid ultra-processed foods, and xx% are cooking more meals from scratch. While affordability continues to guide decisions, many shoppers are managing to make healthier swaps without significantly increasing their spend.

Footfall patterns

Store visits rose xx% in September, but spend per trip fell, reinforcing a pattern of cautious, item-by-item budgeting. Larger-format stores performed better where promotions encouraged bulk purchases. Convenience remained stable, though less dynamic, and relied more heavily on mission-based shopping.

Spotlight on Lidl

Lidl has posted a strong set of results, with pre-tax profits more than tripling to £xxm in the year to February 2025. Sales rose xx% to £xxbn, driven by rising footfall and consistent execution of its discounter model. The grocer added over £xxm in turnover through customer switching and increased loyalty, with more than xx extra visits across the year.

Investment remained central to its strategy. Nearly £500m was channelled into store openings, refurbishments, and logistics, alongside a £xxm pay uplift and xx new hires. Supplier spend reached £5.6bn, with a clear emphasis on British sourcing across meat and eggs.

Lidl plans to open 40 more stores by year-end, including its 1,000th location. In a market defined by cost pressure, Lidl’s scale, discipline and pricing power continue to set it apart from its peers.

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UK Grocery Market Share (12 weeks to 5 October) | Note: green denotes share gain, red denotes share loss.