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Note: This report summary is one or two months behind the current month as standard reporting practice. The content is indicative only and incomplete with certain data undisclosed. Subscribe to access this data or take out a free 30 day subscription trial now.
In June, CPI inflation accelerated for the fourth consecutive month, rising by 00% YoY, from the 00% rise in the previous month – the highest rate since August 2018 and above economists’ forecasts.
Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages (00pp) also made a large upward contribution, with prices rising this year compared with a fall a year earlier. The Bread & Cereals category was the main driver which has experienced some volatility since the start of 2021.
Clothing & Footwear (00pp) prices rose by 00% between May and June this year, compared with a 0.1% fall a year ago. The category continued to be impacted by lower levels of discounting this year compared with seasonal norms due Covid-19 disruptions. Women’s clothing was the main driver of the rise.
Upward pressure from these predominately core components resulted in the core inflation rate (excl. food & energy prices) rising by 00% year-on-year.
Looking ahead, the headline inflation rate may fall back next month given the uplift in inflation in July 2020 when the economy reopened after the first lockdown. However, inflation is then expected to rise further, driven by rising costs and shortages in supply chains, before peaking later on in the year.
The Bank of England revised up its inflation forecasts last month, with inflation now expected to reach 3% by the end of year.
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CPI vs. Core Inflation
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