Report Summary

Period covered: September 2023

3 minute read

Note: This report summary is one or two months behind the current month as standard reporting practice. The content is indicative only and incomplete with certain data undisclosed. Become a member to access this data or take out a free 30 day membership trial now.

Inflation

Headline inflation was unchanged in September, rising by xx% for the second consecutive month. This was above economists’ expectations of a fall to xx% but below the Bank of England’s estimate of a xx% rise. On a monthly basis, prices rose xx%.

Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, edged lower, falling to xx% YoY from xx% in August.

However, the closely-watched services inflation rose to xx% in September (from xx% last month) while goods inflation eased marginally to xx% (xx% last month).

Downward pressure was exerted by food and non-alcoholic beverages with prices falling on the previous month for the first time in two years.

Encouragingly, annual food inflation continued to decline, albeit remaining in double-digits, standing at 12.1% in September, its lowest level since June 2022. The slowdown was driven by a range of items including milk, cheese and eggs, mineral water, soft drinks and juices. Elsewhere, recreation and culture and furniture & furnishings, and household appliances also provided downward pressure.

Lower prices of furniture and household goods compared with a year ago also provided a boost. Five of the six sub-categories exerted downward pressure with a notable movement coming from the major household appliances and small electrical goods categories.

Almost all the upward pressure on the headline inflation rate was exerted by the Transport category, driven by a surge in motor fuel prices amid rising oil prices. Petrol and diesel prices rose 5.1 and 6.3 pence per litre respectively between August and September.

There’s growing uncertainty on the future path of oil prices given the recent step up in the Middle Eastern conflict and ongoing production cuts by the world’s leading oil producers.

But, the overall cost of raw materials continue to decline, with input producer price inflation falling 2.6% YoY from -2.0% last month. Factory gate inflation also remained in negative territory (-0.1%) which should exert downward pressure on consumer prices in the coming months.

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Inflation eases but remains high