Report Summary

Period covered: 27 August - 30 September 2023

3 minute read

Note: This report summary is one or two months behind the current month as standard reporting practice. The content is indicative only and incomplete with certain data undisclosed. Become a member to access this data or take out a free 30 day membership trial now.

Food & Grocery Sales

Food & Grocery sales rose xx% YoY in September, according to the Retail Economics Retail Sales Index (value, non-seasonally adjusted).

Key factors impacted this performance:

Indian Summer: The joint warmest September on record, with temperatures exceeding 30°C in the first half of the month, boosted sales of barbecue food and chilled summer ranges, as households enjoyed outdoor gatherings.

High Inflation: Food inflation is decelerating but remains high compared to historical norms. This is lifting sales in value terms, but dragging down volumes, as cautious consumers pay close attention to budgets, reducing basket sizes.

Less eating out: Grocery retailers are   benefiting from a redistribution of food spending as households cut back on restaurant meals and dine at home instead.

Queen’s funeral: September’s growth in Food sales was partly driven by a favourable comparison to the same month last year, which included the Queen's funeral. During the mourning period, social gatherings were less common, which subdued sales.

Sunshine belated lift better late than never

After a disappointing summer, the change in weather conditions and warm start to Autumn benefited Food & Grocery – in contrast to other retail sectors such as apparel.

Food & Grocery sales saw the strongest topline growth (xx%) since xxxxx, while volume sales are edging closer to positive territory as inflation continues to ease.

The overall volume decline in sales at UK supermarkets improved, down just xx% over the four weeks to Oct 7th (Nielsen).

Store visits increased xx% month-on-month, driven by favourable weather and the back-to-school period, prompting shoppers to resume their regular shopping routines.

Shoppers made the most of the unseasonably warm temperatures, keeping barbecues out of sheds for a few extra weeks, with volume sales of ice cream and burgers jumping xx% and xx% respectively (Kantar).

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Food retail sales values and volumes diverge