Report Summary

Period covered: 05 April – 02 May 2026

3 minute read

Note: This report summary is one or two months behind the current month as standard reporting practice. The content is indicative only and incomplete with certain data undisclosed. Become a member to access this data or take out a free 30-day membership trial now.

Retail Sales Performance:

April saw a drop in sales driven largely by an early Easter trading window, with growth falling xx% year-on-year according to the Retail Economics Retail Sales Index, down from March’s xx% rise.

Spending was strongest in health & beauty, with big ticket purchases under more pressure.

Factors impacting the headline performance in the month include:

Early Easter timing: The five-week reporting period for April did not include Easter this year, unlike 2025. This impacted sales across nearly every category, including food, clothing and footwear, and electricals.

Variable weather: The month began with below-average temperatures and some colder spells, with cooler conditions dominating. By the end of the month, conditions were feeling more spring-like with warmer temperatures and more settled conditions.

Cautious consumers: Retailers entered April expecting a quieter month after March’s front-loaded trading, but some were caught off guard by the speed at which spending became more careful. Higher fuel prices, renewed inflation concerns and persistent headlines around conflict in the Middle East encouraged a more cautious consumer, particularly for larger purchases. Demand softened as the month progressed, with consumers leaning more heavily into promotions and discounts.

While consumers were still willing to spend, it was increasingly on their own terms. Planned purchasing, promotion-led shopping and tighter household budgeting became more evident throughout April, particularly as fuel costs rose and interest rate cut hopes faded.

Mixed category performance: Across March and April combined, clothing & footwear saw mixed growth, with consumers’ willingness to spend constrained by wider uncertainty. DIY & gardening and parts of the home market received a small boost from warmer weather. Electricals sales fell, with retailers under pressure from faltering confidence.

Macroeconomic backdrop

The domestic macroeconomic backdrop was mixed in April, with the conflict in the Middle East continuing to impact consumer confidence.

Headline inflation slowed to xx% during the month, down from xx% in March.

The improvement was driven mainly by the Ofgem energy price cap, which reduced housing and household services inflation sharply. This helped the headline number, but it did not remove the pressure consumers felt most visibly in April. Motor fuel prices rose xx% year-on-year, the highest rate since September 2022, which fed directly into household perceptions of inflation.

The Bank of England held bank rate at 3.75% at its April meeting, but the vote moved to 8-1, with one member voting for a rise, marking a firmer policy tone than March. The Bank remains concerned that higher global energy prices could feed into fuel and utility bills, then into wage and price setting. Markets have moved away from the rate cut assumptions that supported sentiment earlier in the year.

Consumer confidence deteriorated sharply. GfK fell four points to -25, the lowest level since October 2023. Confidence rallied slightly in May, increasing by two points to -xx and defying expectations of a drop to -xx. However, a sustained improvement in confidence is not expected.

UK payroll employment fell by xx YoY in March, while vacancies declined xx% to xx in February to April, the lowest level since 2021. Regular earnings growth slowed to xx% in January to March, as weaker hiring demand and softer consumer confidence weighed on growth.

Real GDP is estimated to have grown by xx% in March and xx in Q1, suggesting resilience despite the uncertain backdrop. Weakening sentiment is expected to have an impact in the months ahead.

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CPI eased to 2.8% YoY in April, down from 3.3% in March, with monthly price growth softer than a year ago