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Retail Economics Response: GDP Q3 2018 preliminary estimate

GDP rose by 0.6% in Q3 2018 from the previous quarter, in line with the consensus view and the Bank of England’s estimate published in their latest Inflation Report. This is the strongest rise on a quarterly basis since the final quarter of 2016.

Compared with the same quarter a year earlier, GDP grew 1.5%.

GDP per head rose by 0.5%, improving on the previous quarter.

The largest contributor to growth was Services, despite growth slowing to 0.4% in Q3. Slowing retail sales growth contributed to the slowdown in overall services growth which followed a strong performance in the second quarter. 

Elsewhere, Construction output continued to recover, increasing by 2.1% in Q3 2018. This was the fastest increase in quarterly construction growth since Q1 2017. Production (+0.8%) and Manufacturing (+0.6%) also rose, the latter reporting its first rise of 2018.

Growth in household consumption strengthened in Q3, up 0.5% , while business investment fell for the third consecutive quarter (-1.2%), reporting its sharpest decline since Q1 2016.

Real GDP increases by 0.6% in Quarter 3 2018: Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008 to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2018

Source: ONS

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