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Quarterly GDP April to June 2026

Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in Q2 2026, compared with Q1 2026, revised up from the previous estimate of 0.4%. This follows growth of 0.6% in Q1 2026.

  • Compared with Q4 2024, GDP is estimated to be 2.0% higher, revised up from the previous estimate of 1.9%.
  • Real GDP per head is estimated to have increased by 0.5% in Q2 2026 and was 1.2% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.
  • Real household disposable income per head increased by 1.0% in Q2 2026, following a decrease of 0.8% in Q1.
  • The household saving ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 8.8%.

Services

  • Services output is estimated to have grown by 0.6% in Q2 2026, following growth of 0.7% in Q1. Services output was 1.7% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.
  • Business facing services grew by 0.7%, while consumer facing services increased by 0.4%. Growth was led by professional, scientific and technical activities (2.3%) and information and communication (2.5%), while education fell by 0.4%.

Production

  • Production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in Q2 2026, revised down from the previous estimate of no growth, following growth of 0.3% in Q1. Production was 0.4% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.
  • Manufacturing grew by 0.5% and mining and quarrying by 2.1%, partially offset by falls in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (-0.8%) and water supply, sewerage and waste management (-4.5%).

Construction

  • Construction output is estimated to have grown by 0.8% in Q2 2026, although output remained 1.0% lower compared with the same quarter a year ago.
  • Both new work and repair and maintenance increased, by 0.9% and 0.8% respectively. Private commercial new work grew by 4.5%, infrastructure new work by 2.9%, and non-housing repair and maintenance by 1.0%.

Household spending and investment

  • Real household consumption expenditure increased by 0.3% in Q2 2026 and was 1.2% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. Clothing and footwear, restaurants and hotels, and housing made the largest contributions to growth.
  • Business investment is estimated to have grown by 1.8% in Q2 2026 and was 5.2% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. Gross fixed capital formation increased by 0.9%. 

Trade

  • Net trade was the main driver of expenditure growth in Q2 2026. Export volumes increased by 2.8%, revised up from 0.5%, driven by growth in both goods (3.7%) and services exports (2.0%).
  • Import volumes showed no growth in Q2 2026, revised down from the previous estimate of 0.5% growth. Goods imports fell by 0.5%, while services imports increased by 1.0.

Real GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.5% in Quarter 2 2026, revised up by 0.1 percentage points from our first quarterly estimate

Source: ONS

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