ONS Retail Sales June 2023

Retail sales (value, non-seasonally adjusted, exc. fuel) rose by 7.9% year-on-year (YoY) in June according to the latest ONS data, against a soft 1.0% rise a year earlier – the fastest growth rate since all Covid restrictions were lifted in February 2022.
In volume terms (non-seasonally adjusted, exc. fuel), retail sales declines softened to -1.0% YoY in May, albeit against a weak -6.8% decline a year earlier.
The three-month-on-three-month volume rate edged up 0.6% in the quarter to June (volume, seasonally adjusted).

Divergence between retail sales volumes and values

Source: ONS, Retail Economics analysis

Note: all retail sales figures provided below are non-seasonally adjusted, excluding Fuel, unless stated otherwise.

Food and non-food

Food sales values stepped up at double-digit rates, rising by 10.3% YoY in June (versus a 2.9% rise a year earlier). But volumes declined by 2.5% in June as grocery prices continue to rocket, despite a 5.5% decline in the previous year.
Clothing sales continued to climb, increasing by 7.4% in June, against a 12.7% rise a year earlier. After accounting for inflation, volumes edged down 0.5% in June, easing on May’s 1.7% decline.
Footwear & Leather Goods surged 28.6% YoY in June and volumes jumped 22.2%, driven by a events and weddings.
Household Goods returned to value growth after eight months of decline, with sales up by 4.7% in June and volumes broadly flat on last year. Furniture and Lighting volumes rose by 3.1% in June, marking the first rise since the end of last year.

Online

Online sales values rose by 6.6% YoY in June, against a weak 8.9% decline a year earlier.
Clothing & Footwear remained the star performer against other major categories online, with ecommerce sales up by 10.6% YoY in the category. Household Goods returned to growth, with online sales up by 6.8%.
Non-store retailing (a proxy for pureplay retailers) sales increased 9.8% YoY in June, against a steep 10.1% decline a year earlier.
The proportion of retail sales made online edged down to 24.9% – down from 25.4% in the previous month and 25.2% a year earlier.

Retail sales price deflator

The retail sales deflator (a measure of inflation specific to retail) softened in June but ultimately rose by a strong 8.9% YoY when excluding fuel. The rate eased more substantially when including fuel to 5.3% – less than half the 11.4% rate recorded in June 2022.
The implied price deflator among food stores stepped up by 13.1% YoY in June – easing from a peak of 14.6% in April. Among non-food stores, the price deflator rose by 6.0% in the month.