Monthly GDP October 2025

• UK GDP fell by 0.1% in the three months to October 2025, marking the first three-month contraction since December 2023 and a clear loss of momentum following modest growth over the summer. Monthly GDP also declined by 0.1% in October, extending September’s fall and underlining a fragile near-term outlook despite GDP remaining 1.1% higher than a year earlier.
• Services stalled over the quarter (0.0%), continuing a steady slowdown seen since spring. Weakness was led by professional, scientific and technical activities (-1.6%), alongside other service activities (-2.6%) and information and communication (-0.4%), partly offset by growth in real estate (0.4%), administrative and support services (0.9%), and public administration and defence (0.8%). On a monthly basis, services fell 0.3% in October, with broad-based declines across eight of fourteen subsectors.
• Production output fell by 0.5% over the three-month period, its sixth consecutive quarterly-style decline, driven overwhelmingly by manufacturing. The sharpest drag came from motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (-17.7%), reflecting continued disruption following a major cyber incident. Monthly production rebounded strongly in October (1.1%), helped by a partial recovery in vehicle manufacturing, though output remains well below late-summer levels.
• Construction output declined by 0.3% in the three months to October, reversing earlier gains as repair and maintenance (-1.0%) weakened, particularly in private housing. New work grew slightly (0.1%), supported by public sector projects, but monthly construction fell 0.6% in October, led by a sharp drop in private new housing (-2.4%).
• Consumer-facing services rose by 0.2% over the quarter, suggesting modest resilience in household-facing activity. Gains were driven by retail trade (excluding motor vehicles) (1.0%), motor trade (1.8%), and food and beverage services (0.7%), partially offset by steep falls in other personal services (-4.6%) and accommodation (-2.4%).
• On a monthly basis, consumer-facing services fell by 0.1% in October, with sharp declines in motor trade and retail outweighing gains in real estate-related activities and personal services, highlighting that consumer demand remains uneven and vulnerable to shocks.

Real GDP fell by 0.1% in the three months to October 2025, following three-month on three-month growths of 0.1% in September 2025 and 0.2% in August 2025

Source: ONS

Back to Retail Economic News