COVID-19 SERVICE: We are heightening our efforts to assist the UK retail & leisure industry through this challenging period. Explore this service now… COVID-19 SERVICE

GDP Q4 2022 Final estimate


  • UK quarterly GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.1% in Q4 2022(Oct to Dec). 
  • In Q4, services output grew by 0.1%, production growth was flat, and construction grew by 1.3%. 
  • Real GDP in Q4 2022 is now estimated to be 0.6% below pre-pandemic levels (Q4 2019).

UK economy failed to grow in the fourth quarter

Source: ONS

By Sector: 


  • Services output rose by 0.1% in Q4 2022, slowing from a 0.2% increase in Q3.
  • Overall, the services sector grew by 5.5% in 2022, compared with an increase of 7.0% in 2021.
  • Growth was seen in six out of 14 sub-sectors, with the largest positive contribution from administrative and support services, particularly travel agents, which increased by 10.8% in Q4 2022 following a fall in Q3. 
  • This was largely offset by declines in education (1.5%) and transportation and storage output (2.9%). Within the transport and storage sub-sector, there were falls from postal and courier activities as well as rail transport, as both industries experienced strike action in Q4. 


  • Production output was flat in Q4 2022 following five quarters of falls.
  • The production sector saw a 2.8% decline in 2022 compared with a 7.3% increase in 2021, although production output is now 2.8% above its pre-pandemic level, revised from 1.3% above. 
  • The latest quarterly fall in production output was driven mostly by declines in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (2.1%), and mining and quarrying (2.4%). 
  • The manufacturing sector grew 0.5% in Q4, with increases in 4 out of the 13 sub-sectors. The largest increases came from the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (up 14.1%), and manufacture of transport equipment (up 3.7%). 
  • The largest falls were in manufacture of chemicals and chemical products (down 4.5%) and manufacture of rubber and plastic products, and other non-metallic minerals (down 3.0%).


  • Construction output rose by 1.3% in Q4 2022. 
  • Construction grew by 6.2% in 2022 following growth of 13.1% in 2021. 
  • The largest positive contribution came from infrastructure (7.3%).

Household consumption 

  • Nominal household consumption rose by 2.5% in Q4 2022, revised up from the first estimate of 1.3%.
  • Real household expenditure increased 0.2% in Q4 2022, driven by higher spending on net tourism, transport and housing, and partially offset by falls in spending on recreation and culture, and food and drink.

Back to Retail Economic News