UK GDP - Q1 2025 First Quarterly Estimate

GDP

UK GDP increased by 0.7% in Q1 2025, a strong pickup from the 0.1% growth recorded in Q4 2024. Compared with the same quarter a year ago, GDP is estimated to have risen by 1.3%.
Monthly GDP grew by 0.2% in March, following unrevised growth of 0.5% in February 2025.
Real GDP per head rose by 0.5% in Q1 2025, reversing two consecutive quarterly declines.

Real GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.7% in Quarter 1 2025

Source: ONS

By Sector

Services

The services sector expanded by 0.7% in Q1 2025, with growth recorded in 10 of the 14 sub-sectors.
The largest contributors to growth were administrative and support services, which rose by 3.3%, and wholesale and retail trade (including motor repairs), which grew by 1.6%.
Retail trade alone (excluding vehicles) increased by 1.5%, pointing to improved consumer demand.
The largest negative contributor was the education sub-sector, which declined by 0.6%.
In March 2025, services output rose by 0.4%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, with increases in 8 of the 14 sub-sectors.

Production

The production sector grew by 1.1% in Q1 2025, after three consecutive quarterly declines.
Manufacturing output rose by 0.8%, supported by a 2.7% increase in transport equipment and a 3.8% rise in machinery and equipment.
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply increased by 1.8%, and water supply and waste management rose by 4.0%.
Mining and quarrying were the only areas of decline, down by 0.5% over the quarter.
However, in March 2025, production output fell by 0.7%, following a 1.7% increase in February, driven by declines in manufacturing and mining and quarrying

Construction

Construction output was flat (0.0%) in Q1 2025, following a 0.3% rise in Q4 2024.
On an annual basis, construction output was up 0.9% compared to the same quarter last year.
In March 2025, construction output grew by 0.5%, with increases in both new work and repair and maintenance.

Household consumption

Household consumption increased by 0.2% in Q1 2025 and is now 0.7% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.
Growth was driven by higher spending on household goods and services, miscellaneous, and housing.
Net tourism contributed negatively to growth in household consumption in the latest quarter.
Excluding net tourism, domestic consumption grew by 0.4% in the latest quarter.

Government Consumption

Real government consumption expenditure fell by 0.5% in Q1 2025 and is 1.3% higher than the same quarter a year ago.
The fall in government consumption in the latest quarter mainly reflects lower expenditure on health and education.

Nominal GDP

Nominal GDP rose by 1.6% in Q1 2025, primarily driven by higher employee compensation and increased household spending.
Compared with the same quarter a year ago, nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by 5.8%.

Implied GDP Deflator

The implied GDP deflator increased by 0.8% in Q1 2025, reflecting higher prices in household consumption.
Compared with the same quarter a year ago, the GDP deflator rose by 4.5%.

International Comparisons

In Q1 2025, the UK's GDP growth of 0.7% was the highest in the G7.
For comparison, Canada and Italy recorded growth rates of 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.
Other G7 countries reported lower growth rates, with Germany at 0.2%, France at 0.1%, and the United States at -0.1%.