Report Summary

Period covered 05 April – 02 May 2026

3 minute read

Note: This report summary is one or two months behind the current month as standard reporting practice. The content is indicative only and incomplete with certain data undisclosed. Become a member to access this data or take out a free 30 day membership trial now.

Food & Grocery Sales

Food and grocery sales softened sharply in April, falling xx% year-on-year, a marked reversal from the xx% increase recorded in the same month last year.

Easter timing materially distorted performance, with much of the seasonal uplift linked to Easter entertaining, gifting and premium food purchasing occurring in March, whereas Easter supported April trading in 2025.

Combined March-April performance provides a more representative view of demand. Across the two-month period, food and grocery sales rose xx%, softer than the xx% increase recorded a year earlier, but ahead of most other categories.

Key drivers and category performance

Easter timing was the main factor behind April’s weaker performance. March had already absorbed much of the spending associated with Easter, leaving April facing a tougher comparison against 2025.

Households remain focused on managing budgets through promotions, price comparison and a mix of premium and lower-cost purchases. Renewed concern around food inflation appears to be supporting these behaviours.

Retail performance remains uneven. Tesco and Sainsbury’s continue to gain share through value investment, loyalty schemes and convenience, while discounters remain attractive to budget-conscious households despite slower growth than during earlier inflation peaks.

Households care continuing to focus on cooking at home and managing spending, particularly as confidence around leisure and travel softens.

Food inflation is becoming a more immediate risk. Earlier increases in confectionery, meat and soft drink prices, alongside renewed pressure from energy and logistics costs, are expected to feed through supply chains over coming months.

Macroeconomic backdrop

The economic backdrop became more difficult during April, although food and grocery remains less exposed than discretionary retail categories.

Rising fuel and energy prices linked to conflict in the Middle East renewed inflation concerns and added pressure to household budgets. Energy-intensive supply chains, transport costs and agricultural inputs remain vulnerable to prolonged disruption.

Food inflation expectations have also moved higher. Renewed pressure across commodities and logistics increases the likelihood of further price rises. This is expected to support value-seeking behaviour and greater sensitivity to promotions.

Expectations for interest rate cuts also moved further out as policymakers responded cautiously to renewed inflation risks. The direct effect on grocery spending is limited compared with discretionary retail sectors, although higher borrowing costs continue to constrain disposable income.

Consumer confidence weakened by four points to -xx in April, with households becoming more cautious around spending and more inclined to build savings. Consumers have become more selective, switching between premium and own-brand products, reduce impulse purchases and place greater emphasis on value.

Outlook

April’s headline decline should be interpreted cautiously given Easter timing, with combined March-April figures showing the category remained in growth. Momentum has slowed relative to last year, however, and conditions are becoming more challenging.

Food inflation is expected to become a more prominent feature of the sector in the second half of the year. Higher energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict are beginning to feed through to fuel, transport and agricultural costs, increasing pressure across supply chains and manufacturers. Higher shelf prices are expected over the coming months.

Consumer behaviour is also shifting. Households are placing greater emphasis on affordability, with increased reliance on promotions, own-brand products and planned purchasing. Trading down may become more visible if inflation accelerates, although premium spending around key occasions and smaller treats is expected to hold up better.

Competition across grocery will remain intense. Tesco and Sainsbury’s are expected to continue investing in value to defend market share, while discounters could benefit if household budgets tighten further. Margin pressure may also increase as retailers balance pricing competitiveness against rising input costs.

Food and grocery remains one of the more stable areas of retail, although rising inflation concerns, slower income growth and greater consumer caution are expected to influence spending behaviour through the summer.

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UK Grocery Market Share (12 weeks to 19 April)