Report Summary

Period covered: 06 April – 03 May 2025

3 minute read

Note: This report summary is one or two months behind the current month as standard reporting practice. The content is indicative only and incomplete with certain data undisclosed. Become a member to access this data or take out a free 30 day membership trial now.

Food & Grocery Sales

Food & Grocery sales rose by a robust xx% year-on-year in April, rebounding against a xx% decline a year earlier, according to the Retail Economics Retail Sales Index (value, non-seasonally adjusted).

Several factors impacted this performance:

Sunny weather:  April was the sunniest on record for the UK and the driest in four years, with just over half the typical monthly rainfall. The warm, settled conditions encouraged more outdoor socialising and lifted demand for fresh produce, meat, chilled drinks and snacks as consumers enjoyed BBQs, picnics and alfresco dining occasions.

Jump in inflation: Food inflation rose to xx% in April – the highest level in a year - driven by rising input costs for key commodities (ONS, CPI). The uptick in prices contributed to overall value growth, particularly across Easter-linked lines and spring staples.

Easter timing: The late Easter this year fell entirely within the April trading period, providing a favourable comparison with 2024, when Easter fell in March. This boosted grocery sales in key seasonal categories such as confectionery, alcohol and meat.

Stripping out the Easter distortion, food sales rose by a solid 4.4% across March and April combined, double the xx% growth recorded over the same period last year.

Spring sales surge

A late Easter, sunny weather and longer evenings created the ideal conditions for food retail in April, driving the fastest sales growth (by value) since 2023.

With three in four households hosting gatherings, the uplift translated into a meaningful xx% rise in grocery volumes, led by seasonal categories such as meats, BBQ products and premium own-label.

Despite a xx% rise in chocolate prices, Easter egg sales grew xx% in value and xx% in volume year-on-year (Kantar).

Promotions also played a key role, with deals like half-price lamb and vegetables from just 8p driving seasonal spend. Lamb sales rose xx% to £xx, while fresh berries climbed xx% (NIQ).

Premium own-label lines grew xx% year-on-year as shoppers traded up for special occasions while remaining focused on value – reinforcing the trend towards affordable indulgence.

In-store channels outperformed, rising xx%, as warmer weather encouraged more shoppers into stores for fresh food and seasonal missions. Online sales rose xx%, with FMCG share slipping to xx%, down from xx% a year ago (NIQ).

Outlook

Retailers will be watching closely to see if April’s momentum can be sustained, particularly as settled spring weather has continued into May. While economic concerns persist, April showed that consumers are still willing to spend when holidays, weather and sentiment align.

Consumer confidence rose three points to -xx in May (GfK), but it remains well below the long-term average of -xx. Many shoppers remain cautious about their finances as inflation creeps higher.

The Bank of England’s xx% rate cut in May and easing global trade tensions may offer some support, but with inflation ticking higher, expectations for further cuts have moderated.

The retailers best placed to grow and sustain share will be those able to combine sharp pricing with clear differentiation and deeper customer insight.

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UK Grocery Market Share (12 weeks to 20 April)