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RICS Residential Market Survey July 2022

Buyer demand declining 

  • The RICS UK Residential Survey for July shows a further drop in demand, but limited supply continues to underpin house price growth.
  • The net balance for new buyer enquiries registered -25%, broadly in line with the previous month and the third successive negative reading. 
  • Notably, all UK regions/countries saw a dip in enquiries over the latest period. 
  • The volume of sales agreed is also falling, evidenced by a net balance reading of -13% (compared with -14% previously).

New listings stagnant

  • With respect to new instructions, the latest net balance of -5% points to a largely stagnant trend in the flow of fresh listings coming onto the sales market. 
  • Average stock levels on estate agents’ books (36 per branch) remain close to an all-time low.
  • Respondents have seen little change in the volume of market appraisals being undertaken in compared to twelve months ago.
  • This suggests a material pick-up in the supply backdrop is unlikely to emerge in the immediate future

Buyer demand in negative territory

Source: RICS

Note: Net balance = Proportion of respondents reporting a rise minus those reporting a fall (e.g. if 30% reported a rise in prices and 5% reported a fall, the net balance will be 25%).

Prices continue to rise 

  • At a national level, a net balance of +63% of agents noted a rise in house prices in July, broadly unchanged from +65% in June.
  • Although this is somewhat lower than the recent high of +78% seen in the Spring, it remains well ahead of the long-run average of 13%. 
  • The latest data shows prices continue to rise across all parts of the UK, even if the rate of growth has softened compared with earlier in the year. 

Outlook

  • Near term sales expectations slipped deeper into negative territory, posting a net balance of -20%, down from -11% in June.
  • The 12-month outlook for activity also weakened, falling to -36%, down from -21% in June – the most downbeat reading since March 2020 at the onset of the pandemic. 
  • On the back of this, 12-month price expectations have eased in each of the last five months, from a net balance reading of +78% in February to +30% now. 

Rental market 

  • Tenant demand remains elevated with a net balance of +36% of contributors noting an increase in July. 
  • On the supply front, a net balance of -8% of respondents noted a decline in new landlord instructions, identical to last quarter’s reading.
  • Rents are expected to rise further over the near-term by a net balance of +57% of respondents.

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