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NIQ Grocery Market Share

Period covered: 4/12 weeks to 4 October 2025

  • Supermarket sales growth held at +4.1% in the four weeks to 4 October,  as households delayed larger purchases ahead of festive promotions. Unit sales fell 0.5%, meaning inflation continues to inflate values rather than volumes. 
  • In-store visits increased 3.5%, with promotions accounting for 23% of supermarket sales, showing a renewed focus on deal-hunting as shoppers navigate persistent financial strain and low confidence (consumer sentiment index: -19.1).
  • Health-conscious behaviour is becoming more visible in shopping baskets. Over half of UK households (54%) say they actively avoid ultra-processed foods, and 52% are cooking more meals from scratch. This shift helped drive meat, fish and poultry sales up 5.9% in value and 0.7% in volume, while beer, wine and spirits were the weakest category, with unit sales down 2.6%. 
  • Moderation trends continue to reshape drinks consumption, with no/low-alcohol beer now accounting for 3.9% of category sales (£219m) and recording double-digit value growth (+12.1%), highlighting a growing preference for healthier or moderated lifestyles.
  • Retailer performance diverged sharply. 
    • Ocado remained the fastest-growing retailer (+14.3%), extending its recovery and capitalising on demand for convenience and online delivery. 
    • Lidl (+11%) and M&S (+10.4%) continued to draw new shoppers, maintaining strong double-digit growth. 
    • Tesco (+4.7%) and Sainsbury’s (+5.3%) sustained steady gains through loyalty pricing and promotional depth. 
    • Asda (-5.1%) underperformed as RollBack discounts reduced average spend per visit, while Co-op (-2.8%) saw fewer visits and lost share against a flat convenience market. 
  • Shoppers are buying fewer items per trip while value growth is running below food inflation. Retailers are responding with targeted price cuts to maintain footfall and protect share ahead of Christmas.
  • NIQ identifies three trends influencing pre-Christmas spending: increased health-conscious choices, moderation in alcohol, and a small reduction in grocery spend among weight-loss medication users. 

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