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GDP Q4 2022 Preliminary Estimate


  • UK quarterly GDP is estimated not to have grown in Q4 2022 (Oct to Dec). 
  • On a monthly basis, GDP dropped by 0.5% in September, following an unrevised growth of 0.1% in November 2022. 
  • In Q4, services output was flat, production fell by 0.2% and construction grew by 0.3%.
  • The UK remains the only G7 economy in which GDP has not yet exceeded its pre-Covid peak.

UK economy failed to grow in the fourth quarter

Source: ONS

GDP breakdown by sector


  • Services output saw flat growth in Q4 2022, slowing from a 0.2% increase in Q3. 
  • On a monthly basis, services fell 0.8% in December, following growth of 0.2% in November. 
  • Growth was seen in six out of 14 sub-sectors, with the largest positive contribution from administrative and support services, particularly travel agents, which increased by 14.8% in Q4 2022 following a fall in Q3.
  • This was largely offset by declines in education (1.6%) and transportation and storage output (2.4%). Within the transport and storage sub-sector, there were falls from postal and courier activities as well as rail transport, as both industries experienced strike action in Q4.
  • Although there was an increase in wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles on the quarter, retail trade declined over the period, as consumers cut back on spending because of increased prices.


  • Production output fell 0.2% in Q4 2022 - the sixth consecutive quarter of contraction.
  • On a monthly basis, production increased 0.3% in December, after growth of 0.1% in November.
  • The latest quarterly fall in production output was driven mostly by declines in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (1.3%), and mining and quarrying (1.6%).
  • The manufacturing sector was broadly flat in Q4, with declines in 10 out of the 13 sub-sectors. The largest negative contributions came from the manufacture of chemicals; and basic metals and metal products. 
  • These falls were offset by increases in the manufacture of pharmaceutical products and preparations, and the manufacture of transport equipment.


  • Construction output rose by 0.3% in Q4 2022 but slowed from the first half of the year. 
  • The main positive contributions came from infrastructure (6.5%), marking the first positive quarterly growth in the sector since Q3 2021.
  • The main negative contributions came from private housing (both new work and R&M), with both seeing quarterly falls of 3.2% and 3.5% respectively.

Household consumption 

  • In absolute terms, household consumption rose by 1.7% in Q3, but this reflects inflationary pressures.
  • Excluding the impact of inflation, real household expenditure fell by 0.5% in Q3, driven by falls in clothing and footwear, household goods and services, household furniture.
  • The implied price of household expenditure increased by 9.1% when compared with Q3 last year, which is the highest for more than three decades.

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