COVID-19 SERVICE: We are heightening our efforts to assist the UK retail & leisure industry through this challenging period. Explore this service now… COVID-19 SERVICE

GDP Q3 2022 Preliminary Estimate


  • UK quarterly GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.2% in Q3 2022 (July to Sept).
  • On a monthly basis, GDP dropped by 0.6% in September, following a 0.1% fall in August and 0.1% growth in July
  • In Q3, services output was flat, production fell by 1.5% and construction rose by 0.6%.

GDP fell by 0.2 percentage points in the third quarter

Source: ONS

GDP breakdown by sector


  • Services output saw flat growth in Q3 2022, slowing from the 0.2% increase on Q2.
  • On a monthly basis, services fell 0.6% in September, which was affected by the additional bank holiday to mark the state funeral, following growth of 0.1% in August and 0.5% in July.
  • As cost-of-living pressures impacted household disposable incomes, retail sales volumes fell by 1.9% in the three months to September 2022, while wholesale trade fell 1.4%. 
  • Other service activities fell by 4.0% in Q3, reflecting a 7.0% fall in other personal service activities such as hairdressers.
  • Overall consumer facing services saw a fall of 0.8% in Q3, a slowing from the 1.2% increase in the previous quarter.


  • Production output fell 1.5% in Q3 2022, which is the fifth consecutive quarter of contraction. 
  • On a monthly basis, Production increased by 0.2% in September, the sectors first growth since May.
  • The latest quarterly fall in production output was driven mostly by a fall in manufacturing output of 2.3%.
  • The largest negative contribution came from the manufactures of basic metals and metal products and manufactures of chemicals and chemical products. 
  • Anecdotally, some manufacturers suggested shortages of supplies, while other firms reported these challenges were easing.


  • Construction output rose by 0.6% in Q3 2022 but slowed on the previous quarter.
  • Construction firms continue to face challenges, including price pressures from construction inputs and products, labour market shortages and challenges to recruiting new staff.
  • Earlier in the quarter, businesses also reported challenging working conditions because of the heat and record-breaking temperatures.

Household consumption 

  • In absolute terms, household consumption rose by 1.7% in Q3, but this reflects inflationary pressures.
  • Excluding the impact of inflation, real household expenditure fell by 0.5% in Q3, driven by falls in clothing and footwear, household goods and services, household furniture.
  • The implied price of household expenditure increased by 9.1% when compared with Q3 last year, which is the highest for more than three decades.

Back to Retail Economic News