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GDP Q2 2022 Preliminary Estimate


  • UK quarterly GDP is estimated to have fallen 0.1% in Q2 2022 (April to June).
  • Output is 0.6% above its pre-pandemic level (Q4 2019) and 2.9% higher than Q2 2021. 
  • On a monthly basis, GDP fell by 0.6% in June, following a 0.4% increase in May and 0.2% decline in April.

GDP growth for the G7 economies showed a mixed picture in Q2 2022

GDP breakdown by sector


  • Services output fell by 0.4% in Q2 2022 and is now 1.1% above pre-pandemic levels. On a monthly basis, services declined 0.5% in June, following growth of 0.2% in May. 
  • The largest negative contribution to services output resulted from human health and social work (-5.4%), as NHS Test and Trace activity ended, and COVID-19 vaccination volumes continued to tail off following the booster campaign. 
  • There was a 1.0% fall in wholesale and retail trade. Retail sales volumes fell across the quarter amid inflationary pressures, while the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) highlighted that 32% of wholesale and retail businesses reported supply chain disruption.
  • The fall in services output was partially offset by strong growth in accommodation and food services (4.7%), as hospitality industries benefited from the extra bank holiday for the Queen’s Jubilee. There were also increases in arts, entertainment and recreation (3.3%), which had previously been impacted by COVID-19 restrictions. 
  • Administrative and support service activities rose by 1.2% in Q2 2022 driven by an increase in travel agencies, tour operators and other related activities, benefitting from strong pent-up demand for holidays following the easing of COVID-19 restrictions.


  • Production output rose 0.5% in Q2 2022 but remains 1.2% below its pre-pandemic level. 
  • On a monthly basis, Production declined by 0.9% in June, reflecting a contraction of 1.6% in manufacturing. 
  • In Q2 overall, growth in manufacturing was broadly flat. But there were falls in 7 of the 13 manufacturing sub-sectors, with many businesses impacted by ongoing shortages of components and input cost pressures. 
  • Production growth in Q2 was primarily driven by a rise in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (2.7%), resulting from growth in the manufacture of gas; and electric power generation, transmission and distribution.
  •  According to anecdotal evidence from the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), demand for electricity was increased because of the absence of COVID-19 restrictions that were in place last year.


  • Construction output increased by 2.3% in Q2 2022 and is now 2.7% above pre-pandemic levels. On a monthly basis, construction output fell 1.4% in June after 1.8% growth in May.
  • High prices for construction products, most notably concrete, plaster, bricks and asphalt-related products, continue to be an issue. The annual rate of all construction work price growth was 9.6% in June, a record high since the Construction Output Price Indices series began in 2014. 
  • Despite these record prices, demand for work persists. Demand in value terms was 18.3% above pre-pandemic levels in June. In volume terms, it was only 2.9% above, after removing the impact of inflation.

Household consumption 

  • In absolute terms, household consumption rose by 2.6% in Q2, but this was entirely driven by inflationary pressures on the value of spending.
  • Real household expenditure fell by 0.2% in Q2, driven by falls in clothing and footwear, food and non-alcoholic beverages, and restaurants and hotels. This was partially offset by rises in expenditure on essentials such as transport, housing and health.
  • The implied price of household expenditure increased by 7.3% when compared with Q2 last year, the highest annual increase since 1991.

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