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GDP Monthly Estimate: October 2022

UK GDP is estimated to have risen 0.5% in October

Monthly GDP index, October 2007 until October 2022, 2019 = 100. Source: ONS

  • GDP rose by an estimated 0.5% in October, following a fall of 0.6% in September. 
  • GDP also fell by 0.3% in the three months to October compared with the three months to July.
  • Services and Construction grew by 0.6% and 0.8% respectively in October, while Production remained broadly flat.

Services (0.6%)

Services grew by 0.6% in October, following a fall of 0.8% in September. Declines across education (-0.3%) and finance and insurance (0.2%) were offset by growth in wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, and human health and social work activities. 

Output in consumer-facing services grew by 1.2% in October, following a fall of 1.7% in September. The largest contributing industry was the wholesale and retail trade; industry, which grew by 6.5% in the month. This follows a fall of 3.3% in September 2022. 

There were also strong contributions from travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities, which grew by 7.1% in October, after a fall of 9.7% in September 2022. Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities grew by 5.9% in October after an 8.3% fall in September. 

Consumer-facing services were 8.9% below their pre-coronavirus levels (February 2020) in October, while all other services were 2.4% above. 

Overall, services fell by 0.1% in the three months to October, with negative growth seen in 9 of the 14 services sectors.

Production (0.0%)

Production output remained broadly flat in October, after growth of 0.2% in September, with negative growth in three of the four sub-sectors fully offset by manufacturing growth. 

Manufacturing was the sole driver of production growth, rising by 0.7% on the month. The main drivers of growth were the manufacture of pharmaceutical products and preparations (8.4%), and manufacture of transport equipment (2.3%). 

Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply made the largest negative contribution, falling by 2.4%. 

Overall, production decreased by 1.7% in the three months to October, mainly due to manufacturing, which fell by 1.8%. There were also declines in mining and quarrying, and water supply and sewerage, which fell by 5.3% and 0.8% respectively. Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply saw growth up by 0.2% over the same period.

Construction (0.8%)

Construction grew by 0.8% in October, the fourth consecutive monthly growth. October 2022 had the highest level of construction output (£15,248m) since records began in January 2010, with 5 out of 9 sectors seeing an increase on the month. 

The growth in monthly construction output in October came from a 0.5% increase in new work, and a 1.3% rise in repair and maintenance. At a sector level, private new housing and non-housing repair and maintenance increased by 2.9% and 1.7% respectively. 

Construction output saw a slight increase of 1.1% in the three months to October. This is the 12th consecutive period of growth in the three-month on three-month series.

GDP Sector Breakdown

Source: ONS

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