UK Retail Economic Briefing Report summary
July 2021
Period covered: Period covered: 01 June – 30 June 2021
Note: This report summary is one or two months behind the current month as standard reporting practice. The content is indicative only and incomplete with certain data undisclosed. Subscribe to access this data or take out a free 30 day subscription trial now.
GDP rose by 00% in May, the fourth consecutive month of growth, but this was considerably slower than March and April.
The easing of hospitality restrictions had a negative impact on retail sales, particularly food sales (which make up 39% of retail sales), as consumers returned to restaurants, bars, and cafés instead.
Construction dropped for a second consecutive month, falling 00% in May, following exceptionally strong growth in the first quarter of the year. Despite this, construction remains the only sector that has fully recovered, with output above pre-pandemic levels.
Retail sales rose by 9.7% YoY in June according to the Retail Economics Retail Sales Index (value, non-seasonally adjusted, exc. Fuel); and rose by 00% against the same period in 2019.
The polarised performance between food and non-food, caused by annual comparisons to 2020 continues to distort overall industry growth.
Shopper numbers across high streets (-27%) and shopping centres (-29%) remain significantly below 2019 levels according to Springboard.
Ongoing fears around the virus, more homeworking and the shift to online continues to undermine footfall, particularly in city centre locations.
In June, CPI inflation accelerated for the fourth consecutive month, rising by 00% YoY, from the 2.1% rise in the previous month – the highest rate since August 2018 and above economists’ forecasts of a 2.2% rise.
The largest upward contribution to the inflation rate came from Transport (00 percentage points, pp), driven by second-hand cars and motor fuel.
Core inflation (excl. food & energy prices) rose by 00% year-on-year, from 00% in May, ahead of expectation.
The unemployment rate in the UK edged up to 4.8% in the three months to May 2021, from 4.7% previously.
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GDP remains 3.1% below February 2020’s pre-pandemic
Source: Source: ONS
