UK Food & Grocery Sector Report summary
June 2023
Period covered: Period covered: 30 April - 27 May
3 minute read
Note: This report summary is one or two months behind the current month as standard reporting practice. The content is indicative only and incomplete with certain data undisclosed. Become a member to access this data or take out a free 30 day membership trial now.
Food & Grocery Sales
Food & Grocery sales rose 00% YoY in May, according to the Retail Economics Retail Sales Index (value, non-seasonally adjusted).
Three key factors impacted this performance:
King’s Coronation: The additional bank holiday weekend for the Coronation in early May boosted retail sales, with Food & Grocery the main beneficiary amid celebrations and street parties.
Warmer weather: The seventh warmest May on record, coinciding with multiple bank holidays, encouraged more entertaining outdoors, and the first barbeques of the season, driving spending.
Stubborn inflation: Food inflation is lifting sales in value terms, but dragging down volumes as consumers pay closer attention to budgets and buy fewer items (Fig 1). In volume terms, Food & Grocery sales fell 00% YoY in May.
Royal uplift
The Coronation weekend brought a £00bn boost to UK retail according to our modelling, as almost half (48%) of shoppers bought products for celebrations and street parties.
Party food was snapped up by over a third (35%) of consumers for the weekend, while 18% bought more alcohol for the occasion.
Supermarkets saw a significant uplift in sales during the week of the Coronation (+17.6%) as shoppers purchased extra items for the event, with larger stores able to offer a wider variety of celebratory ranges.
Overall, UK supermarkets saw a 4.9% rise in in-store visits in May, and a 13.5% increase in spending compared to a year ago (Nielsen).
Sector outlook
Retail Economics forecasts Food & Grocery sales to jump 00% YoY in 2023, with total annual sales hitting £00bn.
High inflation will continue to boost top-line growth across the sector, but sales volumes will decline as households economise on their food shop to combat rising living costs.
Retail Economics forecasts Food & Grocery sales to grow by a 00% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over 2023-2027, reaching total annual sales of over £00bn by the end of this period.
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Food retail sales values and volumes diverge
Source: Retail Economics, ONS
