UK Executive Report summary
November 2020
Period covered: Period covered: 01 Oct 2020 – 31 Oct 2020
GDP rose by a record 15.5% in Q3 2020 compared to the previous quarter as lockdown measures were eased. Despite the sharp rise, the economy is still 9.7% below its pre-pandemic level in Q4 2019.
Compared with the same quarter a year ago, the UK economy fell by 9.6%.
Services, production and construction output all rose by record quarterly increases in Q3 2020, up by 14.2%, 14.3% and 41.7% respectively.
Indeed, the 14.2% record rise in services output on the previous quarter followed a record fall of 19.2% in Q2. That said, services output remains around 10.0% lower than the level seen at the end of Q4 2019. The sharp rise in services output was driven by wholesale and retail trade (+30.7%) and accommodation and food services.
CPI inflation picked up in October, rising by 0.7% year-on-year, up from the 0.5% rise in the previous month – above market expectations of a 0.6% rise.
The number of paid employees fell by some 782,000 in October compared with March 2020 according to flash estimates using PAYE data – around 33,000 lower than in September.
Total hours worked showed further signs of recovery in the three months to September 2020, recording a record rise of 83.1 million hours on the quarter to 925.0 million.
Job vacancies continued to recover in the three months to October, rising by 146,000 to 525,000 (278,000 fewer than a year ago).
The employment rate slowed to 75.3% in the three months to September, 0.6 percentage points down on the quarter and 0.8 percentage points lower than a year earlier.
The unemployment rate in the quarter to September was 4.8% – the highest rate in four years. This is 0.9 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous quarter, equating to a rise of 243,000 people – the largest quarterly increase since May 2009.
Annual pay growth on a total basis (including bonuses) in the three months to September increased to 1.3% while regular pay improved to 1.9%.
GDP and Retail Sales
Source: Retail Economics
