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What does Brexit mean for the economy and the UK retail industry

The result of the EU Referendum is clear. The implications that this will have on consumer spending households disposable incomes savings confidence and the wider retail industry are not. Uncertainty over speed breadth and magnitude of these changes are likely to weigh on our economic prospects and those of UK households for some time.

The focus on economic data and analysis has never been more important. In a period of heightened uncertainty it will be critical for businesses to understand how the rapidly changing macroeconomic environment affects the retail industry as the repercussions of Brexit unfold.

In the short-run households disposable incomes are unlikely to change significantly. It will take time for the knock-on effects of the vote to work their way through to the real economy in terms of jobs higher inflation and lower economic output. Nevertheless we expect elevated levels of uncertainty to lead to a sharp fall in consumer confidence which will trigger higher levels of saving as consumers rein in their spending.

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