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GDP Quarterly National Accounts Q2 2019

GDP fell by 0.2% in Q2 2019 from the previous quarter, unrevised from the previous estimate. This followed an upwardly revised 0.6% rise in Q1 2019, which was partly a result of stockpiling ahead of the original Brexit deadline.

Compared with the same quarter a year ago, the UK economy grew by 1.3%, down from 2.1% in the first quarter.

The services sector was the only part of the economy to expand in Q2, all other sectors fell.

Services output grew 0.1%, in Q2 2019, unrevised from the previous estimate but the weakest quarterly rise in three years. That said, it provided the main positive contribution to overall GDP growth. Within the services sector, wholesale, retail and motor trades growth slowed to 0.1% in Q2 2019.

Production output is estimated to have decreased 1.8% in Q2 2019, slowing on the 1.1% rise in Q1 2019 and the largest decline since Q4 2012. Manufacturing was the main driver which reported a 2.8% decline in output, following an increase of 1.1% in the first quarter, reversing the rise in Q1 and reflecting a decline in car production as plants moved forward their summer shut-down dates.

Construction output decreased by 1.2% in Quarter 2 2019, following growth of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2019. The quarterly fall was due primarily to a decline in repair and maintenance work.

Household consumption has been revised down in both quarters of 2019 due to forecast data being replaced with actual data. In Q2 2019, household consumption now stands at 0.4%, improving on the downwardly revised 0.3% rise in Q1.

These revisions resulted in the annual growth in household consumption slowing to 1.6% in 2018, which is significantly weaker than the 2.3% rise in 2017 and 3.8% rise in 2016.

Contribution to real GDP quarter-on-quarter growth

Source ONS

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