UK Retail Inflation Report

Retail Economics reports a range of retail inflation indices on a monthly basis. Subscribers have access to all data (analytical reports and interactive data) and category breakdowns including food inflation, non-food inflation, clothing and footwear, household goods, food, DIY and gardening, consumer electricals, commodity prices, exchange rates and more.

Report

UK Retail Inflation - June 2018

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The UK Retail Inflation report includes:

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Summary and economic overview
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Consumer inflation by category
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Prices, costs and margins
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Comparison of inflation benchmarks
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Commodity prices
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Exchange rates
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Shipping costs
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Producer and Factory Gate inflation
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Summary of external retail sales sources including Office for National Statistics, British Retail Consortium, commodity prices, commodity benchmarks, exchange rates and more

Summary

Consumer price inflation rose 2.4 per cent in May, year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month. This was below the consensus view of inflation rising to 2.5 per cent.

Upward pressure was exerted by Transport, notably motor fuels, sea and air fares. This outweighed downward pressure from games, domestic electricity, food & non-alcoholic beverages and furniture & furnishings.

The largest upward contribution came from transport, principally from motor fuels. Notably, petrol prices rose 4.6 pence per litre (ppl) between April and May with average prices reaching 125.3ppl in May. This is the highest price since October 2014. Diesel prices also rose by a similar amount; both fuel increases were attributed to the recent rise in crude oil prices.

The overall impact from rising oil prices has seen the downward path of CPI become ‘stickier’ than expected.

That said, as the impact of sterling’s depreciation continues to unwind, inflation is expected to continue to fall towards our forecast of 2.1 per cent by the final quarter of 2018.