The Government is no longer on course to balance the budget during the current Parliament and has officially dropped this ambition in a significant loosening of its fiscal targets. The OBR downgraded its growth projection for 2017 from 2.2 per cent year-on-year to 1.4 per cent. Inflation is forecast to peak at 2.6 per cent and unemployment to rise modestly to 5.5 per cent during 2018. Subdued earnings growth and higher inflation mean that real income growth will fall to close to zero next year. Needless to say, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these key assumptions not least the timing of the triggering of Article 50. Until there is further clarity on the governments intentions, and indeed their relative negotiating success, we should expect a wide margin of error for most long term forecasts.
UK Retail Economic Analysis Report
Our UK Retail Economic Analysis Report analyses a range of macroeconomic indicators including GDP, consumer spending, inflation, labour market, commodity prices, exchange rates, monetary indicators, credit and lending market data, house prices, mortgage data, retail sales and more.
UK Retail Economic Analysis - November 2016
Download this report with a free trial account.
The UK Retail Economic Analysis report includes:
|Summary and economic overview|
|Prices, costs and margins|
|... and much more|