UK Retail Economic Analysis Report

Our UK Retail Economic Analysis Report analyses a range of macroeconomic indicators including GDP, consumer spending, inflation, labour market, commodity prices, exchange rates, monetary indicators, credit and lending market data, house prices, mortgage data, retail sales and more.

UK Retail Economic Analysis - December 2016

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The UK Retail Economic Analysis report includes:

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Summary and economic overview
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GDP
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Labour Market
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Inflation
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Producer Prices
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Consumer Spending
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Retail Sales
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Prices, costs and margins
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House Prices
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Credit Market
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Consumer Confidence
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Wage Growth
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... and much more

Summary

Despite resilience in the UK economy since the Brexit vote, our central forecast is for output to slow markedly on pre-referendum levels. Our forecast for UK GDP growth in 2017 is 1.1 per cent, down from our pre-Brexit forecast of 2.1 per cent. We then expect GDP growth to rise to 1.7 per cent in 2018.

This month’s Retail Economic Briefing contains our forecasts for GDP, inflation, unemployment and real earnings growth for 2017 in addition to keeping you abreast of the latest developments in the economy.

Households’ real wages are expected to decline in 2017 resulting in a slowdown in consumer spending growth. Retail Economics research shows that 48 per cent of consumers suggested they will have less disposable income in 2017 compared with last year.

The labour market is also expected to weaken throughout 2017 on the back of weaker investment, employment intentions and lacklustre economic outlook. Wage growth is expected to slow to c.2.0–2.3 per cent. As inflation accelerates, real earnings are expected to start declining by mid-2017.