Have consumers really shrugged off Brexit woes? The answer to this question depends on who you ask and the most recent retail sales data paints a mixed picture.We estimate that retail sales rose by 1.4 per cent year-on-year in August so after a bumper July, when sales rose 2.1 per cent, growth cooled in August dragged down by poor performances across multiple non-food categories. However, the ONS suggest retail sales growth was considerably stronger, rising 3.8 per cent in August (value, non-seasonally adjusted and excluding fuel), with sales volumes rising by a whopping 5.9 per cent. Such a strong reading should allay any fears that Brexit has cooled consumers’ propensity to spend. In fact, on a rolling three month basis, sales volumes are at their highest since January 2015.The ONS figures fly in the face of other survey data from the BRC, Visa, BDO and the CBI who all reported much weaker sales growth during the same period. A comparison of the Retail Economics, ONS and BRC retail sales figures suggest that the difference between the measures have widened in recent months with August’s data reporting a 4.1 percentage point difference between the BRC and ONS figures. This is the largest discrepancy between the two measures in over 10 years.
UK Retail Sales Report
Retail Economics reports a range of retail sales indices on a monthly basis. Subscribers have access to all data (analytical reports and interactive data) and category breakdowns including online retail sales, clothing and footwear, household goods, food, DIY and gardening, consumer electricals and more.
UK Retail Sales - September 2016
The UK Retail Sales report includes:
|Summary and economic overview|
|Sales growth by category (year-on-year)|
|Online sales growth (year-on-year)|
|Sales growth by region|
|Total spend by sector|
|Average weekly spend (£m)|
|Footfall by channel|
|Summary of external retail sales sources including Office for National Statistics, British Retail Consortium, CBI, BDO, John Lewis, Visa and more|
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